A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."